The foundations of the system that upheld Putin's rule for over two decades crumbled on 24-25 June when approximately 10,000 armed Wagner mercenaries put it to the test.

American authorities were aware of the mutiny preparations beforehand, but Putin was not. Evidently, certain segments of the Russian intelligence services colluded with Prigozhin, as did sections of the military and internal security forces.

Putin has proven to have lost his previous ability to mediate between powerful rival factions. This has undermined his public image in Russia as the all-powerful Tsar and raised doubts about his worth as a guardian of the elites' status and wealth.

In his television address to the nation on Saturday morning, he appeared in a state that the Russian public had never witnessed before: frightened and displaying panic. He promptly vanished from public view and has not been seen nor heard from since.

Later, he experienced the humiliation of having to rely on Alexander Lukashenka, the self-declared president of Belarus whom he famously despises, to negotiate terms with Prigozhin.

By the end of the day, Putin had agreed to grant Prigozhin and his rebels safe passage to Belarus. This humiliation was accepted despite Wagner forces shooting down several aircraft, resulting in the deaths of more than ten Russian servicemen. Just hours earlier, Putin had pledged to bring the mutineers to justice, labelling them traitors and accusing them of pushing Russia towards anarchy and defeat.

The disloyalty within the military and security services, as well as the disappearance of Rosgvardiya, Putin's praetorian guard, now poses a serious problem for the Russian president.

A Leader With No Authority

In an autocratic system, loyalty to the leader is directly tied to their perceived influence and authority. Power is maintained by ensuring the allegiance of institutions that control the state's instruments of violence and repression.

With the Russian army already faring poorly in the war against Ukraine, Putin can no longer rely on the execution of his orders.

His options for addressing the situation offer little hope for consolidating his position.

Putin's Limited Choices 

A purge of the military and security services during a war that lacks popular support could worsen the situation on the battlefield in the short term and exacerbate the army's morale problem.

Bringing the war to a swift end by reaching a settlement with Kyiv based on modest territorial gains, including the preservation of the land bridge to Crimea, does not seem feasible, especially now that Ukraine's leadership senses Putin's vulnerability. Even if it were achievable, it would signal both a failed strategy and personal weakness.

Russia's Future

A time of significant internal tension and uncertainty is not the ideal moment to expedite the search for a successor. Putin needs to identify a figure he can trust, someone with enough influence to guarantee his safety and immunity from prosecution.

Reportedly, he was deeply shocked by the death of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 at the hands of rebels.

In late 2022, rumours circulated in Moscow that Putin was close to appointing Dmitry Patrushev as prime minister as part of his succession plan.

The transfer of former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic to The Hague in 2001 to face war crimes charges would not have escaped Putin's attention either, especially considering that the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest in March.

Time

The remaining option is to attempt to gain time by suppressing dissent within the elites and escalating the nuclear threat over Ukraine to intimidate Western leaders.

However, widespread support for nuclear sabre-rattling among the elites is lacking, so both approaches carry the risk of convincing larger numbers within the military, security services, and government bureaucracy to transfer their loyalty to others whom they believe can offer Russia a future worth supporting.